The US$1.9 trillion COVID-19 Stimulus Package,also called the American Rescue Plan Act of 2021 signed in March this year will be officially ended on September 6th. With its expiration, over 9 million will lose their unemployment relief subsidy. This summer, 26 states in America have withdrawn from some plans in the act. Meanwhile, 5.4 million part timers, contractors and people without unemployment insurance as well as 3.9 million people who have received extended rescue will be influenced by the end of this package.
The outside world hopes the plan to promote the recovery on U.S employment market. However, data from areas that have ended the plan showed that the U.S employment may still be slow even if the plan was implemented. Goldman Sachs (411.31, -3.19, -0.77%) economists noted in an August study that states that cut federal unemployment stipend did see the unemployed find a job at a faster rate, however, the states that cut benefits saw worse results in pulling people back into the formal labor force out of non-financial reasons such as concern about Covid-19
The United States is now faced with severe unemployment. Last Friday’s data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) showed that the unemployment rate declined by 0.2 percentage point to 5.2 percent in August, but is still 1.7 percent higher than in February 2020.At the same time, only 235,000 new jobs were added in the non-farm sector, far less than expectation.
The number of unemployed persons edged down to 8.4 million; The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) decreased by 246,000 in August to 3.2 million but is 2.1 million higher than in February 2020 and 1.5 million persons were prevented from looking for work due to the pandemic, indicating a tremendous impact brought by the outbreak.
A report from Bank of America finds that employment dropped in leisure, hotel and retail trade and other sectors where people have close contact, indicating adverse impact brought by the pandemic.The economist Joseph Song said in his report that “the sluggish employment is embodied in supply and demand. On the one hand, companies halt recruitment as a result of slower supply need and uncertainty in the future; On the other hand, job hunters are blocked by health concern.
It is noted that the US job market has been in short supply in recent times. The job vacancy increases to 10.1 million from 590,000 in July, a highest record since 2000. As of August, However, the number of unemployed people in the United States is around 9.5 million, showing that the vacancy numbers exceeded that of the unemployed people. Prior to 2018, nonetheless, the unemployed number has been higher than that of vacant jobs. This reflects a particularly sharp imbalance between supply and demand in the employment market.
Even a host of jobs are vacant, more people hold a wait-and-see attitude against such spreading virus. While receiving an interview form CNBC, Samassa Lyons, a Kansas resident believed that getting back job is more risky. She worries that her college may not comply with health requirements such as vaccination, wearing masks and keeping away from other people for safe distance.
The bleak employment data in August spelt a fierce debate on whether the government should prolong the rescue act. On the same day, President Joe Biden blamed the coronavirus pandemic for a surprisingly weak jobs report, calling out Americans who have still not gotten vaccinated even amid the spread of the highly infectious delta variant
As of EST 18:00 September 4th, 2021, the United States has reported 39,902,208 confirmed coronavirus cases with 648,064 deaths. In the past 24 hours, 214,979 new cases and 3,220 new deaths were added.
The cumulative number of confirmed cases is approaching 40 million while accumulating deaths exceeds 644,000, meaning that 1 in 8 Americans is confirmed and 1 in 510 Americans dies of the pandemic.
Some US economists worry that the rampant Delta will plunge the United States into severe unemployment mire last Winter.
Not only employment, but various fields are loomed by the haze of Covid-19. Besides, slow economic recovery and unbalanced development together throws Americans into negative mood on the economic prospect.
The Biden administration had predicted that many problems including the economy would be improved this Fall, which, however, is slapped by the truth. “ Increasing evidence indicate that economic recovery has larger possibility to mire in stagnation and chaos than what was predicted by the official ” New York Times reports on August 31th.
Sima Shah of Principal Financial Group describe these data as “ a major failure reflecting havoc wreaked by Delta”. She also said that the Fed may have to reconsider its plan to reduce economic stimulus measures this year.
The US economist Carl Riccadonna believes that Non-farm Payroll is a serious disappointment which poses great uncertainty to the timetable of Fed’s tapering. If current speed of hiring people continues, the dovish officials will have the upper hand. They would said that current employment is not sufficient to meet Fed’s the threshold of “a major substantial progress”, therefore will further prolong the original time. However, the change of tapering time will have a crucial bearing on the stock. Currency and foreign exchange market.
The gold keeps in a temporarily strong uptrend after bottoming out according to the sky chart. It began to punch down with a support of 1795 out of Non-Farm Payroll data released on Friday. As for operation ,it is suggested to sell short at current price and stop loss at 1833. After stopping loss, investors can continue to keep it bullish ,make long buying near the lower 1795 and hold it bullish until the price stands above 1830.
The tendency of crude oil is now consistent with our last analysis. Therefore we only need to keeps selling short until neighbouring 62.
The U.S dollar Index now is within a divergent triangle in an ascending channel, which we we have already predicted in the last article. Short order holders can continue to keep the position
In short term, BTC may continue to climb upwards. It has successfully broken above the bumpy range after fluctuating at high levels. This breakthrough may be highly effective as Bitcoin now stays stable above 50,000 and continue to rise with resistance at 55,000 ahead. As for operation, it is recommended to mainly make long buying. If 51,000 is tested effective for the rise, investors can buy long when the price drops to 51,000 with a expected 55,000 and stop loss at 49,000.
*Above is merely personal opinion for reference only
Doctor Page, guest commentator of Fish.Pro, creator of Time-Space Psychological Trading Method, has 8-year rich experience in investment with unique trading knowledge and strategies. Focusing on dynamic changes of global financial market, Doctor Page is proficient at technical analysis on multi-national policies of central banks as well as basic economic environment and is highly sensitive to both short-term and mid-line markets with a favor on trade models featured by small costs, hefty returns and high chance for success.
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